Q2 2026 FX Timing Intelligence Report
Where the moves happened. When to have been in. An independent, data-driven look at the six major currency pairs — 9,742 hourly prints and 1,114 economic events across USD, EUR, GBP, JPY, AUD and CAD.
- · Quarterly recap of every major currency pair (open / high / low / close, realised vol)
- · Top 12 event-driven moves — CPI, central-bank decisions, payrolls
- · Best and worst UTC hours to have transacted in each currency pair
- · Full methodology and CSV appendix available on request
Executive summary
- USD/JPY led directional moves in Q2 with a +2.53% swing from open to close.
- AUD/USD was the quarter's most volatile major currency pair, printing ~5.2% annualised realised vol.
- Event risk peaked around Housing Starts YoY (Mar) (JPY) on 2026-04-30, moving USD/JPY by -1.36% within the first hour.
Currency-pair-by-currency-pair recap
Open, high, low, close, quarterly change and annualised realised volatility for each of the six majors, computed from hourly prints across Q2 2026.
| Currency pair | Open | Close | High | Low | Δ Q2 | Realised vol |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| EUR/USD | 1.15654 | 1.14042 | 1.18354 | 1.1330 | -1.39% | 3.2% |
| GBP/USD | 1.32427 | 1.32352 | 1.36496 | 1.31419 | -0.06% | 4.0% |
| USD/JPY | 158.7840 | 162.7980 | 162.7980 | 155.7570 | +2.53% | 3.8% |
| AUD/USD | 0.69026 | 0.68914 | 0.72685 | 0.68632 | -0.16% | 5.2% |
| USD/CAD | 1.39093 | 1.42174 | 1.42423 | 1.35619 | +2.22% | 2.5% |
| EUR/GBP | 0.87327 | 0.86162 | 0.87396 | 0.86052 | -1.33% | 2.0% |
Top event-driven moves
The twelve economic releases in Q2 2026 that produced the largest absolute 1-hour move in any major currency pair. Computed by joining each event's release timestamp against the nearest hourly rate print.
| Date (UTC) | Event | Ccy | Currency pair | 1h move | 24h move |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-04-30 · 05:00 | Housing Starts YoY (Mar) | JPY | USD/JPY | -1.36% | -1.73% |
| 2026-04-30 · 05:00 | Consumer Confidence (Apr) | JPY | USD/JPY | -1.36% | -1.73% |
| 2026-04-07 · 16:35 | Fed Goolsbee Speech | USD | AUD/USD | +1.05% | +1.00% |
| 2026-06-17 · 18:30 | Press Conference | USD | GBP/USD | -0.72% | -1.51% |
| 2026-06-17 · 18:30 | Fed Press Conference | USD | GBP/USD | -0.72% | -1.51% |
| 2026-06-17 · 18:30 | Press Conference | USD | EUR/USD | -0.69% | -1.19% |
| 2026-06-17 · 18:30 | Fed Press Conference | USD | EUR/USD | -0.69% | -1.19% |
| 2026-04-07 · 16:35 | Fed Goolsbee Speech | USD | GBP/USD | +0.63% | +0.80% |
| 2026-04-07 · 16:35 | Fed Goolsbee Speech | USD | EUR/USD | +0.61% | +0.59% |
| 2026-06-11 · 12:30 | Initial Jobless Claims (Jun/06) | USD | AUD/USD | +0.58% | +0.86% |
| 2026-06-11 · 12:30 | Producer Price Index MoM (May) | USD | AUD/USD | +0.58% | +0.86% |
| 2026-06-11 · 12:30 | Core PPI MoM (May) | USD | AUD/USD | +0.58% | +0.86% |
Timing intelligence: best and worst UTC hours
Average absolute hourly return by UTC hour-of-day, per currency pair. The "calmest" hour is the window with the lowest realised movement — historically the best window for time-insensitive execution. The "most active" hour is where price discovery concentrated.
Get quarterly reports like this — automatically
FXForesight ingests economic events, timings and hourly rates for the majors and produces this analysis every quarter. Sign up for the free tier to get the next report the day it drops.